This is the first article in a series that will provide an overview of the performance of the Preset Systems available within the Selection Hunter pages of the software.
First, I’ll do a little introduction of myself and how I’ve got involved with this blog.
My name is Mike and have always been interested in numbers. My career choices (?, I fell/got pushed into some of them) span, the Armed Forces, the chemical industry, offshore windfarms, running a gardening business, electronics manufacture, solar energy management and electric vehicle charging.
Most of these roles have involved crunching large, complicated data sets and trying to make sense of what is going on.
Hence, Horse Racing has its appeal.
I live on the East Coast of the UK and decided a couple of years ago to take early retirement to do what I wanted. As yet I’ve not got round to a fraction of the things I want and have no idea of how I had time to go to work!!
Last year I was searching the web for tools to automate my bet placement and as a user of The Staking Machine I was aware of the ‘Merlin Ratings’ that were published and had followed a variation of them for a while. I saw that The Bet Machine ticked a lot of the boxes I wanted and after a few months the addition of the ‘Selection Hunter’ extension turned it into a valuable research tool.
A number of the ‘Preset’ systems have been added from my suggestions and I mentioned that an infrequent review of their performance would be a useful read for some.
So here we are.
The intention of the blog is:
- To provide a summary of the performance of the Preset systems available;
it should be stated that the Presets are designed to be templates for guidance.
- Suggest possible ‘tweaks’ to some of them (I currently have 200+ systems in my library and aim to research a couple each week)
- Additionally, potentially touch on staking levels/plans
Personally I’m a firm believer in proving systems to Level Stakes BSP before employing other staking plans.
- Hints & Tips for using TBM/Selection Hunter
- Trying to avoid back fitting; apply some logic
[The data summarised below was collated on 8th March 2021.
The data is presented at Betfair Start Price with 2% commission deducted]
The selection Hunter Preset Systems are available from within
Selection Hunter -> Selection Hunter Help -> Online Preset Database
There are 15 available at present. Clicking ‘Load Preset’ drops the selected system criteria into Selection Hunter for viewing selections or results.
For ease of presenting the data of multiple systems I have used Microsoft Excel.
Following the 15 systems blindly in the BSP Win markets shows a profit of +2900 points over the last 18 calendar months (16 months of Racing) with no month bar the current showing a loss.
This month, March is currently a little disappointing so far but none of the individual system totals for the first week of March are wildly awry from the historical monthly totals for each. This I think highlights the need for a robust control over the bank; the drawdowns seen in March should be predictable and we’ll have a look at that soon.
Moving on to the Place Markets. Not every system performs well in place markets and not everyone likes betting in them, but you have to look to find out.
Following the 15 systems blindly in the BSP Place markets shows a profit of +650 points over the last 18 calendar months (16 months of Racing).
None of the individual months are desperately bad but personally I would want to delve a little further into their performance.
With the racing calendar being disrupted last year due to Covid the data may be a little skewed (but which way?) so overall I believe the two tables show a great deal of promise. Next lets look a little deeper into the statistics for each system.
What I’m looking at in this table is the Strike Rate, Return On Investment, Break Even Strike rate, Break Even Odds, Estimated Longest Losing Run sequences.
All these feed into consistency of the data across the data set for each system.
The systems that exceed the consistency level I’ve set for the Win Markets have their names highlighted in green.
Just to be clear, this is a level that I have set based on my comfort level of bank management and drawdown acceptance.
Others may want to be either more or less cautious.
The table below shows similar for the place Markets. Again, where a named system is Green it fits my specified criteria. The yellow ones are where they don’t quite pass all tests but may warrant further investigation.
Table 4:Remainder of Place Market ‘Consistency’ Statistics from 1st Oct 2019
Taking the Green Highlights from the Win Market table, an update to the Profit/loss table shows that a potential +1200 points could be achieved over the 16 months, averaging +75 points/month at level stakes. Only 2 of the months show an overall loss.
Similarly, the Green Highlights from the Place Market table shows that a potential +135 points could be achieved over the 16 months, averaging +8 points/month at level stakes.
Obviously, this is looking at past data and we all know that we cannot predict the future: Just because a system shows historical profit it does not guarantee future performance. That said, taking an approach along the lines outlined above takes some of the element of ‘luck’ out of the equation and helps us to hang on to the winnings.
Over the next few editions I’ll keep these updated and present some improvements and other angles to attack.
Next week we have the popular Cheltenham festival. I’m sure you’ve all had emails from tipsters highlighting there choices and I’d wager that not many of them agree.
So lets try and find our own winners…
I have done a very quick review of the Cheltenham historical data in Selection hunter, ran it through a few pivot tables and came up with a system you may want to add to your portfolio. No guarantees but it shows trends for some winners.
Here are the Criteria for you to input.
It’s quite a simple one looking for top rated horses. My extended data set flags 16 selections, 8 of which won. All of the 5 selections for the last festival won.
And the place strike rate is approaching 90%
As a confirmation, when I run the data through my sheets it comes out as Green for both Win & Place markets.
I hope this first edition has been of use to some of you and helps to find a few winners.
Take Care and Good Luck until next time