I’m a bit of a fan of niche systems: I have some which only have a handful of selections per year but generally manage to turn a profit when they come up with a runner.
It can be a fine balance between finding a viable system and getting into a back fitted scenario which will never show another £profit.
But with niches in mind, I thought I’d try digging into the recesses of a recent addition to the Preset Portfolio. It might find something or stimulate another idea or angle to explore.
This is one of the recent additions to try to provide users with a backbone of workhorse systems that can just chug away and over the months clear a profit.
Non Handicap TS1 (Place Only) or TS1OR2-Non Handicap TS1 – [my graphs or tables may show it as NHcpTS1], is designed to be used in the Place Markets and has shown a steady rise in gained profits over the trended date range.
As a reminder, these are the settings.
This graph shows the data since October 2019
Quite a steady upward climb: Here are the analysis stats for the Place Market data via The Staking Machine
And the plot of Drawdowns
There are few periods of 2-3 months where the profit is a little flat; I’ve highlighted a couple.
So, is there a reason for these periods or is it just inherent variability?
As I said I quite like niche systems and many of them are specific to a particular racecourse.
Let’s start there. This is the data for the NHcpTS1 system from the last 6 months broken down by RaceMeet
Lots of numbers! I prefer a picture to tell the story.
Firstly I’ve just looked at the place profit data.
There are a significant number of courses that haven’t made a profit in the place market but from this there is no real indication of trend: For example is we look at the big ‘losers’
Lingfield (AW) & Lingfield
Curragh
Hexham
Taunton
There’s no obvious Code or geography link.
In fact, if you look at most of the other (AW) meetings they, all bar Southwell, made a profit for places.
Here I’ve added in the Win Market data
This reinforces the fact that some courses just don’t fit with this system, Lingfield, others like Wolverhampton are good for place but poor for win. Then the others which appear to be ideal Win & Place territory or just Win.
Kempton (AW)
Exeter
Dundalk (AW)
Wexford
Lets have a look at Kempton (AW) over the last 18+ months
A decent return of 58 points profit over 76 bets in the win markets but I’d avoid the place I think.
How I tend to use this information is that I have handful of profiles that I run everyday and contain my ‘general’ systems which may pick up runners from any of the courses.
Then I have a specific profile for each individual race meet venue. This will contain any systems that are specific to that course and only need to load on the days that racing occurs there. For example, Southwell shown below.
So I’d create a variant of the NHcpTS1 with Kempton (AW)
And set the Query Auto Schedule to load it when needed similar to many others already active.
So this has given an insight into how I use the 6-month data to try to find trends.
Today I just looked at RaceMeet but here are a few other criteria from the NHcp TS1 system all of which could reveal another niche.
Have a play and see what you find and let me know how you get on.
That is me done for now.
It is Mrs Mikes Birthday Weekend so I need to stock the fridge and fire up the BBQ!
Till the next issue.
Evening Mike, the information is great but I am a bit long in the tooth to make as much sense as you would probably like. I have been using the TSM for a long time and now that The Bet Machine has been released I have been a member since the begining but I am getting nowhere at moment. If there was a way of me installing a system that has some proven credit behind it what one would you recommend.
Thanking You,
Roy.
Hi Roy, thanks for reading.
When you say you are ‘getting nowhere’ is it the operation of the software, (using the settings / criteria / staking plans etc), or that you are not finding profits in the systems you are using?
Mike
Morning Mike, yes I am finding it all a bit much I am not a big staker its more of an interest as I am retired pensioner just trying to make a bit extra. Thanks for your speedy reply,
Kind Regards,
Roy.
Hi Roy, I think we are all just trying to make a little extra!
If you want to have a fairly steady climb in profits then the system I used in this months blog is probably ideal. It has +85 points profit over the last 12 months from betting in the place market only. This is to level stakes. That works out to about 4% Return On Investment over the 12 months.
There will be drawdowns, the largest in that data set being -16points before hitting profit again so just ride it out.
With that size drawdown I would suggest an initial stake size per bet of somewhere between 100%/(4*16)=1.56% and 100%/(10*16)=0.625% of your pot for that system depending on your view of risk and return.
I hope that helps
Mike