In my last blog post I looked at the Mechanics behind the LIST feature in TBM. In this blog post I want to look at the benefit of using LISTS.
So what are the benefits of using Lists?
In a previous blog I showed a graph (copied below) of a systems performance across the courses raced to highlight the advantages of closer inspection of data.
Until recently, seeing that data in Selection Hunter required the creation of a system for each course (or Jockey or Trainer). Now with lists we can group those of interest together into a single system.
Below is an example of a system that can be improved by filtering the data with Lists.
I have used the Selection Hunter Preset ‘Non Handicap TS1 (Place)’ as an example.
This is devised as a Place Market system with the orange trendline showing a reasonable, fairly steady return over the period since October 2019.
Running the data to 4th Sept 2021 through my spreadsheets and The Staking Machine reveals
Drawdown is calculated as the lowest level achieved after the maximum profit (expressed as points or as % of bank). An ideal Drawdown value is zero; continuous sustained profit.
Drawdown Length is the number of bets required before the profit exceeds the previous highpoint.
Again lower numbers are better.
Drawdown Length can also be expressed as the average number of days before the system is back in profit.
There were an average of 4.8 selections per day.
Revealing My Secrets
I’ll be honest I do spend a considerable amount of time crunching data through spreadsheets and analysing the statistics to find new angles and systems but what I’m going to show is how you can find new angles easily and quickly by using the tools built into Selection Hunter.
Also what I hope to do is to show you when to stop: It can be very easy to back fit the results and arrive at a system that looks great but then then starts to drop off.
The recent feature additions to Selection Hunter include some extra data analysis via the ‘Additional Breakdown’ button.
Then you’ll see a Table of Win Market data for the system breakdown by Course since Oct 2019
Here is the Trainers data
The columns are sortable by clicking on the headers: Here I’ve sorted by course A-Z.
Be careful of only looking at the profit column: check how any bets have been made, especially with Trainers and Jockeys: Some may only have had 1 or 2 runners and consequently a possible highly skewed strike rate.
One way of checking this is by downloading the data.
Checking Data Using Excel Filters
|The data in the table is downloadable via the Excel / CSV buttons at the top left of the ‘Additional Breakdown’ Screen.|
Once you have downloaded and opened the Excel file, apply a data filter. In the next tab I will step through this process for those that may not know how.
So how can we use this feature to find some profit?
Here I’ll run through an example and see what we come up with. You can then apply your own ideas to some of your own systems.
Here is a list of downloaded win data by course. It has been
- Filtered to show data where Bets >=5
- Filtered to show Strike Rate >=20
- Filtered to show Profit >=0
- Sorted by Profit High to Low
(Note these are arbitrary setting I have used to demonstrate the process. You will have your own ideas about what you want to look at.)
You can see that there are 32 courses that satisfy those filter conditions from the full list of 88 courses in the data set.
So based on previous data we could expect that this smaller group of courses may provide improved system performance.
Lets drop it into Selection Hunter and have a look.
As a reminder, I am using the Preset NH TS1 system as an example.
The generator defaults to the RaceMeet (Course) page, remember to change if you are creating another type of List.
You will see a confirmation message and the list will be in the text box.
The tick boxes of all the found Courses will be activated in the top window
You will see the text box fill with a comma separated list.
This shows the generator after all the steps above.
Now go back to the Selection Hunter screen, right click in the Value cell for Race meet and Paste in your copied string data.
Now you can run the system and see the difference from using the selected courses.
At this point you have a new system to save and possibly filter further maybe by Trainer or Jockey or Place data.
BUT, BE CAREFUL! Don’t over do it. It could be very easy to apply multiple filters which may be over fitted to previous only good results data and therefore possibly not provide future profits.
You will notice that when I selected the profit range in the example above I include low profits to allow a broad picture rather than cherry picking exceptional results.
Essentially, use some common sense.
What you are doing is not finding the best performing criteria but excluding those that are consistently performing badly.
The LIST feature is a game changer in terms of massively increasing the flexibility of finding profitable avenues to follow. And the sheer number of possible avenues is immense.
As I said previously I do crunch a lot of data through spreadsheets to find my avenues and I apply quite strict statistical constraints to what I follow or leave alone.
One tip I will emphasise is: Graph your data
Here is an example of one system I found recently
Exceptional performance but currently has a flat spot, however this is no worse than its previous performance so I will continue and check the stats every week or two to re-evaluate.
I have to have a few days away this week for a family funeral but when I return I will spend some time re-visiting the Preset Catalogue and modify a few with some carefully selected Lists for all to use.