LTO Prominent
This system looks for horses that were prominent in its last race.
We are looking for top rated Horses (Numbers 1,2,3 in handicap races only) that ran strongly in their last race but did not win. Longer odds filter of between 5 and 20 in use.
This system is also available as a preset in Selection Hunter.
Updated 04/03/2026 – This system is still performing as expected. An additional filter of avoiding Class 6 Races improves the ROI and strike rate. Preset in TSM has been updated to reflect.
Disclaimer – There is no guarantee that the future results will mirror the historical results. It is simply an indication.
60 Percent Place
This system looks for an edge in the Place Market. We are looking at Larger fields in the lower Class Races where the horses are generally less predictable. To ensure we have a Horse with a good history we use a Predited Ranking of Less than or Equal to 5 and a Racing Post Rating greater than 60.
We also want horses between the age of 4 and 6 which avoids horses with less experience and horses that are perhaps racing less than they once were.
Research shows that in the Place Market where Odds are between 1.4 and 3 AND they are Favourite at the off, there is a potential value in the bet.
We can see the Places Results and Strike Rate by pressing the Analyse Query Results Button.
Variations to this system are changing the odds ranges to increase/decrease strike rate.
Update 04/03/2026 – This system is still positive over the last 6 months after going through a down cycle. Course Speed filter has been added since this system was created. Removing Course Speed = Stiff races improves the ROI for the Place Results.
Disclaimer – There is no guarantee that the future results will mirror the historical results. It is simply an indication.
Triple Top Rank
This system uses the Racing Post Rating, Official Rating and Top Speed Rating to try and find consistent winners.
Additionaly we want Class to be 2,3,4 or 5.
We also want to avoid Maiden Races (Horse has never won !).
Odds – To avoid over backed favourites use odds of over 2. Favourite Ranking should be less than or equal to 5.
This system doesn’t provide a selection every day so maybe one to combine with another system of a similar strike rate.
Update 04/03/2026 – This system is still positive over the last 6 months after going through a down cycle
Disclaimer – There is no guarantee that the future results will mirror the historical results. It is simply an indication.
5 Furlong Specialist
This system looks for horses that are in form at 5 Furlongs. Designed with fairly open filters in order increase selections. You can easily add additional filters to reduce the number of selections if desired.
The Horse must of won over 5 Furlongs previously. At least 1 of the last 3 runs must of been placed. Days Since Last Run should be less than 60 days but again this can be extended to increase selections. The Trainer should also have previously won at this course.
Additional Filters could be Stalls 1-5, Race Types (Not Apprentice, Amateur etc).
This produces a good number of bets with an odds range of 2 and 20.
One option to increase the strike rate slightly is to use the Place Market at odds of over 10. This increases the strike rate to over 25% but also reduces the profit.
Update 04/03/2026 – This system is still positive over the last 6 months. Currently flat. Waiting for the next up cycle.
Disclaimer – There is no guarantee that the future results will mirror the historical results. It is simply an indication.
Irish Flat
The basis of this system was based on a ChatGPT question. “Create a horse racing selection system based on filters for Irish Horse Racing”. It offered 2 systems. One for flat and one for jumps. We will look at the Flat offering here.
Step 1: Race Selection Filters
Race Type Focus
- Flat: Focus on Handicaps, Group races, and good Maiden races (avoid Claimers and low-class races).
Class of Race
- Avoid low-class handicaps (Rated 45-65 on the Flat) unless a strong angle is found.
- Focus on Premier Handicaps, Listed, and Graded races.
Field Size Considerations
- Flat: Prefer 6–14 runners (avoids unpredictable large fields).
Course Bias & Specialists
- Certain Irish tracks favor front-runners (e.g., Galway, Limerick) or strong finishers (e.g., Leopardstown, Punchestown).
- Look for horses with good records at the track.
Going Conditions (Very Important in Ireland!)
- Many Irish tracks get very testing in winter—horses proven on soft/heavy ground have an edge.
- In summer, fast-ground specialists are key.
Step 2: Horse Form Filters
Recent Form
- Horse must have finished in the top 4 in at least one of its last 3 runs.
- Ignore horses with pulled up (PU), fell (F), or refused (R) in the last two outings unless there’s a strong excuse.
Days Since Last Run
- Flat: Prefer 7–42 days (fit but not over-raced).
Trainer Form
- Trainer must have at least a 10% strike rate in the past 14 days.
- Look for small trainers hitting form, as they often offer value.
Jockey Booking
- Top jockeys matter more in Ireland (e.g., Colin Keane on the Flat, Paul Townend over Jumps).
- If a top jockey is booked for a small yard, it’s a positive sign.
Handicap Mark Movement
- Avoid horses heavily penalized by the handicapper.
- Look for horses dropped 3-7 lbs from their last few runs.
Step 3: Market
Ideal Price Range
- Flat: 3/1 to 12/1 (shorter-priced horses dominate good races).
Step 4: Statistical & Performance Metrics
Speed Ratings & Sectionals
- Irish racing relies less on speed figures, but horses with the top 3 speed ratings in a race still hold an edge.
Course and Distance Winners
- C&D winners have a strong edge, especially at unique tracks like Galway, Bellewstown, and Laytown.
On this occasion Chat GPT coughed up some great info. If we were to add every filter there would be almost zero selections. By widening the paremeters we can come up with the following –
This produces enough selections to just about say this has an angle worth following.
We can fine tune this further by narrowing the filters or by adding the H_L3_PlaceWins but then we start to lose selections and are in danger of ‘back fitting’.
Another option here is to increase the odds range and use Place Bets when the Win Odds are 10 or over. The screenshot below shows the odds range increased to 20. The number of selections almost doubles. However our profit decreases. Our edge has decreased.
By having a cut off set at 10 so that any selections with Win Odds over 10 are Placed instead, we can get our strike rate at over 25% and profit back up over £200.
Lots of options to play around with depending on your style of betting and staking plan preferences.
Update 04/03/2026 – This system is still positive over the last 6 months.
Disclaimer – There is no guarantee that the future results will mirror the historical results. It is simply an indication.
